1   11 May, 2020
 2
 3The efficacy of deepfakes
 4
 5Can we really write it off as "not a threat"?
 6
 7   A few days back, NPR put out an article discussing why deepfakes aren't
 8   all that powerful in spreading disinformation. [1]Link to article.
 9
10   According to the article:
11
12     "We've already passed the stage at which they would have been most
13     effective," said Keir Giles, a Russia specialist with the Conflict
14     Studies Research Centre in the United Kingdom. "They're the dog that
15     never barked."
16
17   I agree. This might be the case when it comes to Russian influence.
18   There are simpler, more cost-effective ways to conduct [2]active
19   measures, like memes. Besides, America already has the infrastructure
20   in place to combat influence ops, and have been doing so for a while
21   now.
22
23   However, there are certain demographics whose governments may not have
24   the capability to identify and perform damage control when a
25   disinformation campaign hits, let alone deepfakes. An example of this
26   demographic: India.
27
28the Indian landscape
29
30   The disinformation problem in India is way more sophisticated, and
31   harder to combat than in the West. There are a couple of reasons for
32   this:
33     * The infrastructure for fake news already exists: WhatsApp
34     * Fact checking media in 22 different languages is non-trivial
35
36   India has had a long-standing problem with misinformation. The 2019
37   elections, the recent CAA controversy and even more recently -- the
38   coronavirus. In some cases, it has even lead to [3]mob violence.
39
40   All of this shows that the populace is easily influenced, and deepfakes
41   are only going to simplify this. What's worse is explaining to a rural
42   crowd that something like a deepfake can exist -- comprehension and
43   adoption of technology has always been slow in India, and can be
44   attributed to socio-economic factors.
45
46   There also exists a majority of the population that's already been
47   influenced to a certain degree: the right wing. A deepfake of a Muslim
48   leader trashing Hinduism will be eaten up instantly. They are inclined
49   to believe it is true, by virtue of prior influence and given the
50   present circumstances.
51
52countering deepfakes
53
54   The thing about deepfakes is the tech to spot them already exists. In
55   fact, some can even be eyeballed. Deepfake imagery tends to have weird
56   artifacting, which can be noticed upon closer inspection. Deepfake
57   videos, of people specifically, blink / move weirdly. The problem at
58   hand, however, is the general public cannot be expected to notice these
59   at a quick glance, and the task of proving a fake is left to
60   researchers and fact checkers.
61
62   Further, India does not have the infrastructure to combat deepfakes at
63   scale. By the time a research group / think tank catches wind of it,
64   the damage is likely already done. Besides, disseminating contradictory
65   information, i.e. "this video is fake", is also a task of its own.
66   Public opinion has already been swayed, and the brain dislikes
67   contradictions.
68
69why haven't we seen it yet?
70
71   Creating a deepfake isn't trivial. Rather, creating a convincing one
72   isn't. I would also assume that most political propaganda outlets are
73   just large social media operations. They lack the technical prowess and
74   / or the funding to produce a deepfake. This doesn't mean they can't
75   ever.
76
77   It goes without saying, but this post isn't specific to India. I'd say
78   other countries with a similar socio-economic status are in a similar
79   predicament. Don't write off deepfakes as a non-issue just because
80   America did.
81
82References
83
84   1. https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851689645/why-fake-video-audio-may-not-be-as-powerful-in-spreading-disinformation-as-feare
85   2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures
86   3. https://www.npr.org/2018/07/18/629731693/fake-news-turns-deadly-in-india