pages/txt/ru-vs-gb.txt (view raw)
1 12 December, 2019
2
3Disinfo war: RU vs GB
4
5A look at Russian info ops against Britain
6
7 This entire sequence of events begins with the attempted poisoning of
8 Sergei Skripal^[1]1, an ex-GRU officer who was a double-agent for the
9 UK's intelligence services. This hit attempt happened on the 4th of
10 March, 2018. 8 days later, then-Prime Minister Theresa May formally
11 accused Russia for the attack.
12
13 The toxin used in the poisoning was a nerve agent called Novichok. In
14 addition to the British military-research facility at Porton Down, a
15 small number of labs around the world were tasked with confirming
16 Porton Down's conclusions on the toxin that was used, by the OPCW
17 (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons).
18
19 With the background on the matter out of the way, here are the
20 different instances of well timed disinformation pushed out by Moscow.
21
22The Russian offense
23
24April 14, 2018
25
26 * RT published an article claiming that Spiez had identified a
27 different toxin -- BZ, and not Novichok.
28 * This was an attempt to shift the blame from Russia (origin of
29 Novichok), to NATO countries, where it was apparently in use.
30 * Most viral piece on the matter in all of 2018.
31
32 Although technically correct, this isn't the entire truth. As part of
33 protocol, the OPCW added a new substance to the sample as a test. If
34 any of the labs failed to identify this substance, their findings were
35 deemed untrustworthy. This toxin was a derivative of BZ.
36
37 Here are a few interesting things to note:
38 1. The entire process starting with the OPCW and the labs is
39 top-secret. How did Russia even know Speiz was one of the labs?
40 2. On April 11th, the OPCW mentioned BZ in a report confirming Porton
41 Down's findings. Note that Russia is a part of OPCW, and are fully
42 aware of the quality control measures in place. Surely they knew
43 about the reason for BZ's use?
44
45 Regardless, the Russian version of the story spread fast. They cashed
46 in on two major factors to plant this disinfo:
47 1. "NATO bad" : Overused, but surprisingly works. People love a story
48 that goes full 180�.
49 2. Spiez can't defend itself: At the risk of revealing that it was one
50 of the facilities testing the toxin, Spiez was only able to "not
51 comment".
52
53April 3, 2018
54
55 * The Independent publishes a story based on an interview with the
56 chief executive of Porton Down, Gary Aitkenhead.
57 * Aitkenhead says they've identified Novichok but "have not
58 identified the precise source".
59 * Days earlier, Boris Johnson (then-Foreign Secretary) claimed that
60 Porton Down confirmed the origin of the toxin to be Russia.
61 * This discrepancy was immediately promoted by Moscow, and its
62 network all over.
63
64 This one is especially interesting because of how simple it is to
65 exploit a small contradiction, that could've been an honest mistake.
66 This episode is also interesting because the British actually attempted
67 damage control this time. Porton Down tried to clarify Aitkenhead's
68 statement via a tweet^[2]2:
69
70 Our experts have precisely identified the nerve agent as a Novichok.
71 It is not, and has never been, our responsibility to confirm the
72 source of the agent @skynews @UKmoments
73
74 Quoting the [3]Defense One article on the matter:
75
76 The episode is seen by those inside Britain's security
77 communications team as the most serious misstep of the crisis, which
78 for a period caused real concern. U.K. officials told me that, in
79 hindsight, Aikenhead could never have blamed Russia directly,
80 because that was not his job--all he was qualified to do was
81 identify the chemical. Johnson, in going too far, was more damaging.
82 Two years on, he is now prime minister.
83
84May 2018
85
86 * OPCW facilities receive an email from Spiez inviting them to a
87 conference.
88 * The conference itself is real, and has been organized before.
89 * The email however, was not -- attached was a Word document
90 containing malware.
91 * Also seen were inconsistencies in the email formatting, from what
92 was normal.
93
94 This spearphishing campaign was never offically attributed to Moscow,
95 but there are a lot of tells here that point to it being the work of a
96 state actor:
97 1. Attack targetting a specific group of individuals.
98 2. Relatively high level of sophistication -- email formatting,
99 malicious Word doc, etc.
100
101 However, the British NCSC have deemed with "high confidence" that the
102 attack was perpetrated by GRU. In the UK intelligence parlance, "highly
103 likely" / "high confidence" usually means "definitely".
104
105Britain's defense
106
107September 5, 2018
108
109 The UK took a lot of hits in 2018, but they eventually came back:
110 * Metropolitan Police has a meeting with the press, releasing their
111 findings.
112 * CCTV footage showing the two Russian hitmen was released.
113 * Traces of Novichok identified in their hotel room.
114
115 This sudden news explosion from Britan's side completely bulldozed the
116 information space pertaining to the entire event. According to Defense
117 One:
118
119 Only two of the 10 most viral stories in the weeks following the
120 announcement were sympathetic to Russia, according to NewsWhip.
121 Finally, officials recalled, it felt as though the U.K. was the
122 aggressor. "This was all kept secret to put the Russians on the
123 hop," one told me. "Their response was all over the place from this
124 point. It was the turning point."
125
126 Earlier in April, 4 GRU agents were arrested in the Netherlands, who
127 were there to execute a cyber operation against the OPCW (located in
128 The Hague), via their WiFi networks. They were arrested by Dutch
129 security, and later identifed as belonging to Unit 26165. They also
130 seized a bunch of equipment from the room and their car.
131
132 The abandoned equipment revealed that the GRU unit involved had sent
133 officers around the world to conduct similar cyberattacks. They had
134 been in Malaysia trying to steal information about the investigation
135 into the downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, and at a hotel in
136 Lausanne, Switzerland, where a World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA)
137 conference was taking place as Russia faced sanctions from the
138 International Olympic Committee. Britain has said that the same GRU
139 unit attempted to compromise Foreign Office and Porton Down computer
140 systems after the Skripal poisoning.
141
142October 4, 2018
143
144 UK made the arrests public, published a list of infractions commited by
145 Russia, along with the specific GRU unit that was caught.
146
147 During this period, just one of the top 25 viral stories was from a
148 pro-Russian outlet, RT -- that too a fairly straightforward piece.
149
150Wrapping up
151
152 As with conventional warfare, it's hard to determine who won. Britain
153 may have had the last blow, but Moscow -- yet again---depicted their
154 finesse in information warfare. Their ability to seize unexpected
155 openings, gather intel to facilitate their disinformation campaigns,
156 and their cyber capabilities makes them a formidable threat.
157
158 2020 will be fun, to say the least.
159 __________________________________________________________________
160
161 1. [4]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Skripal
162 2. [5]https://twitter.com/dstlmod/status/981220158680260613
163
164References
165
166 1. https://icyphox.sh/home/icy/leet/site/build/blog/ru-vs-gb/temp.html#fn:skripal
167 2. https://icyphox.sh/home/icy/leet/site/build/blog/ru-vs-gb/temp.html#fn:dstltweet
168 3. https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/12/britains-secret-war-russia/161665/
169 4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Skripal
170 5. https://twitter.com/dstlmod/status/981220158680260613