1---
 2date: '2020-05-11'
 3subtitle: 'Can we really write it off as "not a threat"?'
 4title: The efficacy of deepfakes
 5url: 'efficacy-deepfakes'
 6---
 7
 8A few days back, NPR put out an article discussing why deepfakes aren't
 9all that powerful in spreading disinformation. [Link to
10article](https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851689645/why-fake-video-audio-may-not-be-as-powerful-in-spreading-disinformation-as-feare).
11
12According to the article:
13
14> "We've already passed the stage at which they would have been most
15> effective," said Keir Giles, a Russia specialist with the Conflict
16> Studies Research Centre in the United Kingdom. "They're the dog that
17> never barked."
18
19I agree. This might be the case when it comes to Russian influence.
20There are simpler, more cost-effective ways to conduct [active
21measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures), like memes.
22Besides, America already has the infrastructure in place to combat
23influence ops, and have been doing so for a while now.
24
25However, there are certain demographics whose governments may not have
26the capability to identify and perform damage control when a
27disinformation campaign hits, let alone deepfakes. An example of this
28demographic: India.
29
30the Indian landscape
31--------------------
32
33The disinformation problem in India is way more sophisticated, and
34harder to combat than in the West. There are a couple of reasons for
35this:
36
37-   The infrastructure for fake news already exists: WhatsApp
38-   Fact checking media in 22 different languages is non-trivial
39
40India has had a long-standing problem with misinformation. The 2019
41elections, the recent CAA controversy and even more recently---the
42coronavirus. In some cases, it has even lead to [mob
43violence](https://www.npr.org/2018/07/18/629731693/fake-news-turns-deadly-in-india).
44
45All of this shows that the populace is easily influenced, and deepfakes
46are only going to simplify this. What's worse is explaining to a rural
47crowd that something like a deepfake can exist---comprehension and
48adoption of technology has always been slow in India, and can be
49attributed to socio-economic factors.
50
51There also exists a majority of the population that's already been
52influenced to a certain degree: the right wing. A deepfake of a Muslim
53leader trashing Hinduism will be eaten up instantly. They are inclined
54to believe it is true, by virtue of prior influence and given the
55present circumstances.
56
57countering deepfakes
58--------------------
59
60The thing about deepfakes is the tech to spot them already exists. In
61fact, some can even be eyeballed. Deepfake imagery tends to have weird
62artifacting, which can be noticed upon closer inspection. Deepfake
63videos, of people specifically, blink / move weirdly. The problem at
64hand, however, is the general public cannot be expected to notice these
65at a quick glance, and the task of proving a fake is left to researchers
66and fact checkers.
67
68Further, India does not have the infrastructure to combat deepfakes at
69scale. By the time a research group / think tank catches wind of it, the
70damage is likely already done. Besides, disseminating contradictory
71information, i.e. "this video is fake", is also a task of its own.
72Public opinion has already been swayed, and the brain dislikes
73contradictions.
74
75why haven't we seen it yet?
76---------------------------
77
78Creating a deepfake isn't trivial. Rather, creating a *convincing* one
79isn't. I would also assume that most political propaganda outlets are
80just large social media operations. They lack the technical prowess and
81/ or the funding to produce a deepfake. This doesn't mean they can't
82ever.
83
84It goes without saying, but this post isn't specific to India. I'd say
85other countries with a similar socio-economic status are in a similar
86predicament. Don't write off deepfakes as a non-issue just because
87America did.