---
date: '2020-05-11'
subtitle: 'Can we really write it off as "not a threat"?'
title: The efficacy of deepfakes
url: 'efficacy-deepfakes'
---

A few days back, NPR put out an article discussing why deepfakes aren't
all that powerful in spreading disinformation. [Link to
article](https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851689645/why-fake-video-audio-may-not-be-as-powerful-in-spreading-disinformation-as-feare).

According to the article:

> "We've already passed the stage at which they would have been most
> effective," said Keir Giles, a Russia specialist with the Conflict
> Studies Research Centre in the United Kingdom. "They're the dog that
> never barked."

I agree. This might be the case when it comes to Russian influence.
There are simpler, more cost-effective ways to conduct [active
measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures), like memes.
Besides, America already has the infrastructure in place to combat
influence ops, and have been doing so for a while now.

However, there are certain demographics whose governments may not have
the capability to identify and perform damage control when a
disinformation campaign hits, let alone deepfakes. An example of this
demographic: India.

the Indian landscape
--------------------

The disinformation problem in India is way more sophisticated, and
harder to combat than in the West. There are a couple of reasons for
this:

-   The infrastructure for fake news already exists: WhatsApp
-   Fact checking media in 22 different languages is non-trivial

India has had a long-standing problem with misinformation. The 2019
elections, the recent CAA controversy and even more recently---the
coronavirus. In some cases, it has even lead to [mob
violence](https://www.npr.org/2018/07/18/629731693/fake-news-turns-deadly-in-india).

All of this shows that the populace is easily influenced, and deepfakes
are only going to simplify this. What's worse is explaining to a rural
crowd that something like a deepfake can exist---comprehension and
adoption of technology has always been slow in India, and can be
attributed to socio-economic factors.

There also exists a majority of the population that's already been
influenced to a certain degree: the right wing. A deepfake of a Muslim
leader trashing Hinduism will be eaten up instantly. They are inclined
to believe it is true, by virtue of prior influence and given the
present circumstances.

countering deepfakes
--------------------

The thing about deepfakes is the tech to spot them already exists. In
fact, some can even be eyeballed. Deepfake imagery tends to have weird
artifacting, which can be noticed upon closer inspection. Deepfake
videos, of people specifically, blink / move weirdly. The problem at
hand, however, is the general public cannot be expected to notice these
at a quick glance, and the task of proving a fake is left to researchers
and fact checkers.

Further, India does not have the infrastructure to combat deepfakes at
scale. By the time a research group / think tank catches wind of it, the
damage is likely already done. Besides, disseminating contradictory
information, i.e. "this video is fake", is also a task of its own.
Public opinion has already been swayed, and the brain dislikes
contradictions.

why haven't we seen it yet?
---------------------------

Creating a deepfake isn't trivial. Rather, creating a *convincing* one
isn't. I would also assume that most political propaganda outlets are
just large social media operations. They lack the technical prowess and
/ or the funding to produce a deepfake. This doesn't mean they can't
ever.

It goes without saying, but this post isn't specific to India. I'd say
other countries with a similar socio-economic status are in a similar
predicament. Don't write off deepfakes as a non-issue just because
America did.